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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."